Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Challenges ahead

Tennis season started and I feel more confident about 2015 outcome. Comparing to last year January my trading methods evolved at a reasonable level. This year will be all about the psychology of trading. I realized that with best methods with 95% strike rate, the remaining percents can blow many banks if not treated seriously. Also the losing circle can continue until the necessary adjustments are made.
For me is reducing the time for trading, number of markets and sports. I have good results in US and AUS racing only if I trade one of them during a day. When I trade both all the profit is lost caused by mistakes caused by a decrease in concentration after a couple of trading hours. Reducing the time for a couple of months should help.
4 hours/day will be the maximum time for trading. Beside that I'll be watching some Tennis matches to develop the knowledge about the players. I have no profit target for 2014, it could go either way. If I sort-out how to improve my trading psychology I'll be collecting the results. The starting bank is small enough control the losses and keep me focused on development.

Wednesday, January 22, 2014


From my last review of my progress in July six month review things went in a different direction. I was upset about Greyhound results but now it is my main focus. In fact most of my trades are in the Greyhound markets. I said then: This is a good moment to completely abandon trading the dogs, they are only a source of frustration and losses. Now i make a reasonable amount for these markets every time I trade them. The change in attitude is caused by some changes I had to do. They inevitable came after I gained some experience. I always close trades before the SP, even with a loss. My desire to keep my positive attitude and be able to trade the next race without other thoughts increased my ability to take a loss. This way the profit follows, smaller than in the past but enough to keep me interested. 
In Horse Racing market the liquidity evolved bad for me. It's more difficult to put the stake without being flagged by other trader that's making things difficult for me. I'll monitor these races but using smaller stakes.
I consider that the biggest gain during this period is a detachment from the results. The positive attitude can be maintained only by doing the right things. I want to continue for at least a couple of years so having this goal in mind is what I want in the next year.   

Thursday, November 14, 2013

Increased liquidity

The US Horse Racing got my attention again because of increasing liquidity. During the summer months it was quite difficult to win consistently on them, so I decided to wait until conditions will improve. 
I think these changes are caused by the reduced number of UK Horse Races during Winter. Maybe some traders moved to other markets, like me to US Races or Greyhounds. If this is true, than it's great news because I use a small liability in every race and I look for bigger swings. 
It was a really good week, the way how I now approach every race is very different from one month ago. I created a daily routine, with a fixed number of trading hours. I discovered it's more rewarding to end a trading day at a predefined time, having the rest of the day for other activities.

Sunday, September 1, 2013

One week result

Both my goals have been achieved, I now have 90 € in my betfair wallet and 90 € as a back-up bank on the credit card. The graph shows the evolution for horse-racing, I had some successful tennis trades that are not included. When the bank was 90 €, my stakes were increased and the increase of profit/race is obvious.   
one week profit
It's going great and it's the only part of trading where I don't have negative feelings. So far my rules have been followed and this gives me confidence that it's more appropriate for my personality. I can accept better when I'm wrong because it's the players fault, not mine. Maybe all the months when I didn't follow my rules on horse-racing have changed the way I see the whole process of pre-race. It's too personal and I'm the only one responsible for the result. Trading only prices, without any knowledge about those horses means that my actions represent what I think the market will do next and it can do anything. It seems my edge works but there's no pleasure following the rules. In tennis the interaction is different, the players are involved and it's more fun to trade. Below is a label for the stakes I will use weekly.
week stakes

The overall profit is 160 € in a week from a 22 € bank. First I traded in-play and greyhounds with full bank as a stake and twice almost lost the whole bank when the Take SP didn't take my bet on dogs. I was lucky that my lay at 8.0 finished second. That's why my plan is to avoid Greyhounds. I will continue with the current strategies until my tennis knowledge will increase. 

one week profit main

one week profit aus

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Continuous progress

Following the tradingaprofit guide trading rules I made enough to cover it's price in four days.
Those who are constantly searching for best trading methods will see how different full-time traders approach the markets. It's all about doing the right thing when you spot value,  not some mechanical rules every time a certain situation occurs. Without some experience it won't be that easy to get the same results as me, I traded two years different sports before and all I needed were some suggestions and encouragement. I already knew the mechanics behind the odds movement and read many trading psychology books. The 1000 races traded is the minimum before knowing these things. These methods are more entertaining from what I did before. Watching the live video from Racing UK can offer some great value entry points. Below are some stats and the graph with every trade during this period. 
Total number of races was 63 during 4 days, strike rate 77%, average profit/race 1,3, average loss/race 1,65. Total profits 65, total losses 25. Grand total 40.