These explanations apply for the 10 minutes pre-race markets on horse-racing. The patterns are constantly changing and only if you find some on your own, you will have an edge. How the markets work can be learned in several weeks, then you will see some patterns. Ultimately, after you find an edge you must execute the trades with discipline. If you don't know already know you must always close the trade before the off. Do not let trades go in-play. It's a mistake that will surely lead to big losses. The indicators that I look for are:
-Weight Of Money - in the ladder you can see the percentages. If the WOM shows that your horse is the only one that is drifting or steaming, then almost every time it will drift at least one tick.
-Betfair graphs - I look at all the graphs and verify if the direction of the price on my horse will continue. It's not that easy to look at all the graphs in the beginning but you will develop this ability over time.
- Quantsports graphs for the two horses that are more important in the market. Sometime I use 3 graphs. They have moved to ochart and you can open similar graphs. The same Ninja Trader graphs that I use with Quant can be also accessed using Bfexplorer. These graphs I use to verify my choices and to be more confident.
To scalp successfully you must try to be in front of the queue. So your bet is the first in line. This can be made by placing your stake at different prices minutes before and wait for the price to come to your stake. When it is one tick away, you can place the counter bet and you will be in front of the line on the next price, that you placed a minute ago. Other method is when the prices are constant, you place two bets, one on the lay and the other on the back and they will get matched if there will be enough liquidity.
There is no point trading every race because is unlikely to have good results in all. The idea is to make some categories, for example Odds on Favorites; Two horses below 3.0; Three horses at 5.0, etc. I note in an excel file the races that qualify my criteria and I trade only on those.
The favorites are very difficult to scalp these days, WOM isn't accurate at all. So I trade other horses that are 3.0 - 7.0. If there are many horses strong in the market the indicators are useless, so there must be 4 horses maximum below 7.0 to have some certainty.
The minutes remaining until the off time are very important. There are at least three intervals. 10->5; 5->3; 3->1 minutes. If you want to close the trade in a different interval the trend can already changed direction.
In Geeks Toy you can choose Book Profit as stake. Then for every one tick profit the program will calculate the stake. For scalping a 1-2 € for every tick is good enough and assures you that it will be matched.
So, to review:
- monitor races for several weeks and make notes
- find some trends in certain races
- write down exactly when to open and close trades
- test for a week or two
- follow with discipline the rules
Certainly this is not easy to be done but is a sure way to find a good method.